Recently in Political Strategy Category

Barack Obama's largest problem may be overconfidence in coming weeks, even appearing unwittingly as if the election were a fait accompli. Tom Dewey had that problem in 1948 against Harry Truman, a plain spoken, unglamorous and unpopular underdog. Note to Obama: McCain may be reading up on that storied election.

Sure, reversing positions on key issues can be unseemly and, if done often enough, it can make a candidate appear disingenuous and gutless. But I see Barack Obama's recent flip-flops in a different light than my colleague Mark Willen. The spate of pronouncements in recent days that appear to put him at odds with previous positions has almost certainly made Obama a stronger candidate.

Another thought on endorsements. While they don't swing many votes as a rule, the Kennedy clan backing Obama may be very different. Kennedy is a great campaigner in his own right, and his plan to appear in Arizona, New Mexico and California over the next week could have a significant impact on Hispanics, who so far have been overwhelmingly in the Clinton camp. (The Wall Street Journal has a timely look today on the historical enmity between blacks and Hispanics.)

Add to that the fact that Kennedy's endorsement was front page news for two days running, the importance of the "New Frontier" mantle and the growing sense that the Democratic establishment is growing disenchanted with Hillary and Bill Clinton.

Endorsements are often derided as mere grist for the chattering class with little genuine impact on voters. But some endorsements can make a difference and provide important clues to where power centers within each party base are drifting.

In the Democratic race, while Clinton has locked up support of many party regulars, Obama is gaining ground and clearly has managed to sell his unity message to key elements of a party famous for its food fights. The backing of Sen. Edward Kennedy today was a stunner. It was both the passing of a torch of inspiration and hope from Kennedy's slain brothers to Obama and a rebuke of the Clintons and their attacks on Obama. It's all the more significant because Kennedy has a tradition of staying out of primary fights.

But equally important, Obama isn't just drawing the support of party liberals. He has won the nod from conservative Democrats -- most notably Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska -- for much the same reason that Kennedy cited when announcing his support: Obama's call for America to unite behind its ideals and to abandon politics of division, be it along lines of race, ideology, partisanship or class.

How well did Mitt Romney's speech embracing both his Mormonism and a role for broad religious values in American public life go over? It hasn't made much difference in the polls, but by specifically excluding non-believers in his mid-December speech, Romney managed to raise questions about his tactics. And he underscored the age old dilemma candidates have in trying to secure their nomination: How far can you go to attract party loyalists but without alienating the swing and independent voters who can be decisive in general elections.

Oh, and the speech started a mini-flap by making a claim that his campaign is now backing away -- that his father marched with Martin Luther King Jr.