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ABOUT THIS ENTRY
This page contains a single entry by Kevin McCormally published on October 16, 2008 2:36 PM.

Multiple Choice Polls was the previous entry.

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TAXES
Little Tax Promises and Average Joes

Comments (12) |

last debate.jpg
The tax promises the candidates rolled out this week got mercifully little attention in last night's third and final debate on Long Island. In fact, when it was over, New York Times columnist David Brooks on PBS pretty much ridiculed the ideas -- things like suspending mandatory retirement plan distributions, allowing penalty-free early withdrawals from IRAs, cutting the capital gains tax, making unemployment insurance tax-free -- as "little promises."

Promising tax cuts is more American than apple pie, though so-very-much less satisfying. Even with record deficits and a $10 trillion national debt (the financing of which eats up 10% of our national budget), John McCain and Barack Obama continue to trot out new tax cuts as salvation. Before taking a quick look at some of the latest ideas, a little perspective ...

I remember covering Ronald Reagan's first big tax cut in 1981. It was the biggest tax cut ever. Oh, yeah, I also covered the biggest tax hike ever...the one the Gipper signed into law the following year. Who can forget George H.W. Bush's 1988 "read my lips, no new taxes" pledge . . . and the subsequent 1990 tax hike he signed into law after lawmakers locked themselves in a hanger at Andrews Air Force Base to come up with a plan? Middle-class tax cuts were the centerpiece of Bill Clinton's 1992 "it's the economy, stupid" campaign. Yet, a fascinating piece in the Times published shortly after his inauguration explained how his advisers were already plotting tax hikes...and figuring they could get away with it because it was unlikely that voters ever believed the promises in the first place. "Voters never believed in the middle-class tax cut," one adviser was quoted as saying. "They always believed their taxes would go up whether Bill Clinton became president or George Bush was president."
 
Oh, what cynics taxpayers are!
 
Quick thoughts on some of the latest proposals:

  • Suspending mandatory withdrawals from retirement plans. Current law requires retirees age 70 1/2 and older to draw down their IRAs and 401(k)s based on their life expectancies. Both candidates would temporarily waive that requirement so seniors aren't forced to sell in this down market. Sounds helpful (although retirees who have their money in CDs and money market funds haven't suffered market losses in their retirement accounts), but it would mostly benefit retirees who don't really need the cash from their accounts to pay their bills. For many (probably most) retirees, though, the problem isn't a desire to take out less money than the minimum required by law. They have to take out at least that much just to stay afloat.
  • Cut the tax on retirement withdrawals. At the same time the candidates want to let retirees keep their money in their tax shelters, another of McCain's proposals seems to acknowledge the fact that most retirees need the cash:  He'd set a flat 10% tax rate on the first $50,000 of retirement plan withdrawals by retirees age 60 and older. That would surely help a lot of folks (although low-income seniors pay 10% or less on their withdrawals now), but none so much as high-bracket taxpayers who don't really need the money. They could save a bundle by pulling  $100,000 out of their accounts over the next two years at 10%...money that otherwise would be taxed as high as 35% (or 39.6% if Obama's tax hike for folks making more than $250,000 makes it into law).
  • Penalty free early withdrawals. Obama proposes letting folks under age 59 1/2 raid their retirement accounts for up to $10,000 penalty-free. (There's generally a 10% penalty for early withdrawals.) Apparently, in this case, the need for cash trumps the worry about selling in a down market. And, get this: although the withdrawal would dodge the penalty, it would still be taxed.
  • Cut the capital gains tax in half. McCain wants to cut the maximum capital gains tax in half, from 15% to 7.5%. Although Obama foolishly complains that no one has capital gains any more (apparently forgetting that investing in stocks, mutual funds and real estate was going on before the latest market meltdown), there are surely hundreds of billions of dollars in unrealized capital gains in Americans' portfolios. But, don't forget that for millions of taxpayers (those with taxable incomes below $32,550 on single returns and $65,100 on join returns) the tax rate on capital gains is...drum roll, please...0%. (Another fun fact: the median family income in the U.S. is about $50,000.) It would be yet another break that generally provides help to those who don't especially need it.
  • Making unemployment compensation tax-free. I bet most Americans didn't know these payments were taxed. Thankfully they weren't back during my one stint on the rolls -- in 1977 -- but Jimmy Carter imposed a tax on some benefits in 1979 and Ronald Reagan's Tax Reform Act of 1986 made benefits fully taxable. The latest numbers  from the IRS show that 7.4 million unemployed taxpayers reported a total of $26.5 billion in taxable benefits in 2006.What do you think: Should jobless pay be tax-free, just like combat pay? I wonder if cash-strapped cities and states would move to cut the payments if Uncle Sam quit taking a piece.
  • Tax credit for creating new jobs. Obama has proposed giving businesses a $3,000 tax credit for every new job they create. What a great idea as unemployment spikes, right? Maybe, but don't get your hopes up. Martin Sullivan, an economist and former Treasury official, writes in Tax Notes that a very similar credit created in 1977 was such a bust it disappeared after two years. One problem: enormous complexity in figuring out which businesses deserve the credit. What's a new job?  How, for example, do you measure new jobs in a contracting industry like automaking or banking? How do you deal with companies that merge with other firms or spin off a division?

One final point about the real star of last night's debate: Joe the Plumber. I don't know the fellow, but I do want to remind you that it doesn't sound like he's really an average Joe. The tax hike that McCain said Obama would punish Joe with is the one Obama says would only apply to taxpayers making more than $250,000.
 
I wish Joe well, but I think he'd be doing stupendously if he can buy a business and turn a quarter million dollar profit in the first year. Remember, that's taxable profit...after he's paid his employees and for all this equipment and other expenses. I looked up the latest numbers from the IRS. In 2006, just 1.45% of taxpayers reported more than $200,000 in taxable income.
 
Bottom line? I suggest voters make their decision on who should be the next president on issues other than taxes.

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12 Comments

Jayme said:

It's been reported today that "Joe the Plumber" is not a licensed plumber in the state of Ohio after all. And his name is Samuel not Joe.
This guy is obviously a shill.

GeorgeJ said:

His name is Joe. Joe Wurzelbacher from Toledo, Ohio. He is not licensed as a plumber (and that is required in Toledo). Press reports indicate he currently owes over $1000 in back taxes. It's probably going to be difficult for him buy that quarter-million-dollar-generating plumbing business without a license. . .

Stacy said:

It does seem pretty weird to lower capital gains taxes when the government should be encouraging people to put money into the stock market instead of taking it out. But nothing surprises me anymore.

Steven Pierce said:

I agree. These are all dumb ideas that just pander to stupid voters. As a small business employer, I wouldn't let a $3,000 credit enter into the decision-making process. It would just give a freebie to people who were going to add staff anyway -- and you'd be hard pressed to find anybody in that category in this economy.

Dave said:

The main idea behind 'Joe the Plumber' is the redistribution of wealth. Giving (larger) tax rebates to people who pay no taxes. You know, a futher slide towards socialism. From that perspective there are many 'Joe the Plumbers', people who have worked hard to get to where they are, without the handouts.

What happens when you give handouts with no strings, it becomes the family business for generations of people who expect someone else to pay. I have no problem with giving to those in real need, but we have never come up with a good solution to eliminating the freeloaders.

Those of us who pay taxes just keep paying while our Congressional leaders continue to squander our money -- $55 trillion in debt and unfunded entitlements and all either candidate can do is think of more entitlements. Do you really think the middle class will be exempt from paying? You can increase Warren Buffet's taxes all you want and you still won't close that gap. The only solution is a combination of tax increases and entitlement cuts --not a politically palatable solution. But being Americans, nothing will be done until it becomes a crisis bigger than the one we are in at the moment. The only solution then will be to seize assets, the next and final major step towards socialism.

Your getting lost in the weeds by picking apart Mr. Wurzelbacher, which is what Obama and Co. want -- take the focus off of what his true intentions are if he wins and has a majority in Congress.

Think about that.

Susan R said:

The problem, Dave, is that most rich people want to redistritube responsibility and workloads - but not money. It's the poor working man or woman who teaches your kids or polices your neighborhood or fights your wars for pennies while those born into wealth and have all the advantages of good nutrition, health care and education just keep getting richer. Under the current system, the rich have all the lobbying power and they use it to keep getting richer. We need to level the playing field after eight years of widening the gap. It's really about equal opportunity.

Bryan said:

Susan, do you believe in personal choice and responsibility? Or were the people you speak of forced into their line of work?

I was not born into wealth, but both of my parents believed in working hard every day, sending their kids to public school, being involved in church, and supporting their kids in extracurricular activities. Never were we taught that someone else should be "sharing" their wealth with us, but that we should learn to work hard for our own opportunities and possibly wealth would follow.

Personal responsibility and choice was not dissolved 8 years ago.

Dave is correct, Obama's plan is to "spread" the wealth so that future generations have to rely on the government for a handout. Obama and Co. will be bad for this country.

Saniyya said:

Dave, this is from factcheck.org (maybe you should read the article):

Congressional Budget Office figures show that even those in the lowest-earning fifth of households pay an effective federal tax rate, on average, of 4.3 percent of their income, despite benefiting from existing federal refundable tax credits to a major degree. This group had average income of $15,900 in 2005, the most recent year for which CBO has done the calculations. But despite receiving "a federal check" through the income tax system that boosted income by an average of 6.5 percent (this shows up as a negative tax rate in the CBO tables), they still paid an average of $600 in federal taxes. That's true even after subtracting the effects of refundable tax credit "welfare."

Joe Friday said:

Kevin wrote:

* "Middle-class tax cuts were the centerpiece of Bill Clinton's 1992 'it's the economy, stupid' campaign."

That is revisionist history.

A) Actually, the "centerpiece" of Clinton's '92 campaign was BOTH an increase in the income tax on the top 1.2% of taxpayers, as well as an increase in the corporate income tax, AND a Middle-class income tax cut.

B) After the inauguration, it became evident that Dick Darman, the Bush administration's Director of OMB, had lied to the Clinton campaign, as well as the rest of the country, about the severity of the exploding deficit. Although the Middle-class income tax had to be curtailed, the $500 per-child tax credit for 27 million families with 45 million children was the largest tax cut for typical American families in decades. Not to mention that the expansion of the EITC well into the Middle-class provided tax relief to 15 million hard-pressed working families and lifted 4.1 million people out of poverty.


* "Yet, a fascinating piece in the Times published shortly after his inauguration explained how his advisers were already plotting tax hikes."

What "plotting" ?

Clinton and Gore were campaigning all over the country on the issue of raising taxes on the Rich & Corporate.
.

kevin mccormally said:

Joe--

If you read the Times piece we linked to, you'll see that it makes it clear that the Clinton aides were looking at tax hikes BECAUSE the economy was in worse shape than they expected. President Reagan sincerely believed in tax cuts -- I've never doubted that -- but he accepted the '82 tax hike to attack the deficit. I bet most Americans today know the economy inherited by the next President is going to make keeping all their tax cut promises impossible. That was my point.

--kevin

Mark said:

Tax cuts for the uber wealthy would be fine if they deployed the capital into the economy and boosted aggregate demand. But they don't. They take it off shore to avoid even more taxes. If you give a tax cut to a middle class worker, he'll spend it and lift aggregate demand. I can't believe there are people still willing to defend the government is bad - tax cuts are good routine of the last 30 years. What we have ended up with is the greatest redistribution of wealth to a tiny percentage at the top and the destruction of everyone else. Without a strong and prosperous middle class, the country is a hollow shell; which is what it is now.

Joe Friday said:

Kevin,

"If you read the Times piece we linked to, you'll see that it makes it clear that the Clinton aides were looking at tax hikes BECAUSE the economy was in worse shape than they expected."

But that's just it, the story got it WRONG.

There was no policy shift, or plotting to raise taxes after the inauguration. As I explained, in '92 they campaigned all over the country on raising the income tax rate on the top 1.2% of taxpayers and raising the corporate income tax, and in the Summer of '93, President Clinton signed budget & tax legislation that increased the income tax on the top 1.2% of taxpayers and increased the corporate income tax.

Given who the author was, it comes as no surprise. I don't like to speak ill of the dead, but Michael Kelly had a long string of getting it documentably wrong when it came to the Clintons.
.

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